Buy, sell, hold or add: Brokerages’ outlook on Mahanagar Gas post Q4 results - Latest target price inside

• The brokerage firm, Citi, maintains a ‘Buy’ rating with a target price revised to Rs 1,400 from Rs 1,510.
• The brokerage further highlighted that the company’s Q4 EBITDA and PAT were broadly in line, though margins remained weak
• Industrial and commercial PNG volumes impacted by government gas reallocation
• EBITDA/scm declined QoQ due to higher LNG prices, weaker INR and supply curtailments
• Government initiatives are seen as supportive of long-term CGD growth
• Citi cuts FY27/28 EBITDA estimates by 13-24 per cent on margin pressure
• Brokerage still positive on long-term outlook amid policy tailwinds.

Mahanagar Gas share price: Emkay rating on MGL - Check latest target price

• Volume grew 6% YoY to 4.67 mmscmd, with CNG volume growth at 7% (1% beat).
• DPNG volume missed estimates by a surprising 9%.
• Around 0.14mmscmd of IPNG volume was hit by curtailment.
• Sourcing costs rose further in Apr-26, although spot gas prices have moderated now.
• The management expects better volume growth in FY27, potentially clocking double-digit rates, supported by faster network expansion and regulatory relaxations amid the GoI push for CGD.
• Near-term margin outlook remains uncertain, though the management intends to undertake necessary price actions for sustaining EBITDA at Rs 8/scm.
• The brokerage further cut its FY27/FY28 merged EBITDA by 15%/8%, factoring in the lower EBITDA margin and volume.

• The brokerage highlighted the company’s near-term margin pressure expected on LNG supply disruptions due to Middle East tensions and sharp INR depreciation.
• MGL targets 10 per cent volume growth in FY27 on supportive government policies.
• MGL's Q4FY26 EBITDA missed the consensus estimate by 8 per cent on a spike in gas costs (+9%) on weak INR and LNG supply disruptions, resulting in EBITDA/scm crashing 38 per cent YoY.
• Volumes expanded 6 per cent YoY with CNG/PNG growth at 7%/4%.
• PAT missed consensus by 21 per cent on lower other income (-31% YoY).
• Therefore, the brokerage retains ‘REDUCE’ due to near-term margin pressure and sector multiples de-rating due to ad-hoc government policies causing uncertainty (similar to OMCs, which trade at a considerable discount).
• Trades at 9x/7x FY27E/28E EV/EBITDA.

• Mahanagar Gas Ltd reported a 46.3 per cent year-on-year (YoY) decline in its consolidated net profit to Rs 130 crore in the fourth quarter of the financial year 2025-26 from Rs 241 crore posted in the corresponding quarter of the previous fiscal.
• The company's revenue saw a 4.5 per cent YoY uptick to Rs 2,052 crore in the January-March quarter from Rs 1,964 crore in the year-ago period.
• It's EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation) reported a decrease of 34,2 per cent YoY to Rs 260 crore in Q4 FY26 from Rs 395 crore in the preceding financial year.
• The PSU firm's EBITDA margin declined to 12.7 per cent in the reporting quarter from 20.1 per cent in the previous fiscal.
• Revenue at Rs 2,052 crore in Q4 FY26 vs Rs 1,964 crore in Q4 FY25, up 4.5% YoY
• Profit at Rs 130 crore in Q4 FY26 vs Rs 241 crore in Q4 FY25, down 46.3% YoY
• EBITDA at Rs 260 crore in Q4 FY26 vs Rs 395 crore in Q4 FY25, down 34.2% YoY
• EBITDA Margin at 12.7% in Q4 FY26 vs 20.1% in Q4 FY25.