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Currently caught between macro headwinds and US tariff uncertainty, copper prices will likely rule volatile in the coming months due to the US-Iran conflict, analysts said.
“As we head into H2 2026, we expect copper prices to remain caught between macro headwinds and tariff uncertainty, while geopolitical risks persist, rendering the market acutely exposed to further volatility and highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East (West Asia),” said research agency BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions.
“Tight inventories, strong import demand and falling exchange stocks suggest copper fundamentals remain supportive in the near term. Still, concerns over global growth and the Fed outlook could limit further gains,” said ING Think, the economic and financial arm of Dutch multinational financial services firm ING.
Up at 6-week high
“Elevated (copper) prices are expected to persist through 2026 due to ongoing supply disruptions, tight concentrate markets, and strong demand,” said Australia’s Office of Chief Economist (AOCE).
Copper prices surged to a 6-week high due to a shortage outside the US and lower stocks. However, China’s resistance to higher prices and inflation concerns capped the gains.
On the London Metal Exchange, copper’s three-month contract is currently quoted around $13,800 a tonne. The red metal has gained 5 per cent in the past month and over 13 per cent year-to-date.
LME copper prices surged 38 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter, reaching a record high of $14,500 a tonne in January, said AOCE. “Prices have since eased but remain elevated, supported by mine disruptions and risks of sulphuric acid shortages due to the Middle East conflict. About 20 per cent of world refined copper produced uses the acid in the solvent extraction and electrowinning (SX-EW) operations,” it said.
Yangshan premium soars
ING Think said copper prices found support at the start of the week from tightening physical market conditions in China. “Import premiums for copper - the Yangshan premium - surged to $100/tonne, their highest level in more than a year. This is up from just $20/tonne in late January, as scrap shortages boosted demand for refined metal and imports,” it said.
The tightness follows Beijing’s crackdown on invoice trading, which has disrupted scrap flows and constrained domestic supply. Maintenance outages at several Chinese smelters have also limited production.
BMI has raised its copper price forecast to $12,700/tonne. It reflected “sustained support to prices from converging supply-side pressures, tariff-driven tightness and AI-fuelled optimism”, which continue to propel the red metal to successive record highs, it said.
US tariff fears
AOCE said elevated prices are expected to persist through 2026 due to ongoing supply disruptions, tight concentrate markets, and strong demand.
“Prices are expected to ease to about $11,050 a tonne (real terms) by 2031, as mine supply lifts and refined output matches demand,” it said.
ING Think said copper continues to find support from expectations of potential US tariffs.
BMI sees the current rally as already extending beyond what fundamentals alone would justify
The research agency cautioned that a more constructive backdrop on both the geopolitical and macro fronts needs to materialise before downside risks can be entirely ruled out, with the US tariff decision remaining the most immediate directional catalyst.
Demand may slow
ING Think said China’s copper inventories are now near the bottom of their seasonal range, while LME stocks are at their lowest since March as metal is drawn into the Chinese market. This could keep the prices elevated.
AOCE said global copper demand is expected to slow in 2026 amid geopolitical uncertainty and softer economic conditions. On the other hand, supply is expected to show only gradual growth due to delays in new mines and expansions.
Published on July 23, 2026
English (US) ·