D-St eyes ‘Sell on Rise’ strategy amid West Asia tensions

Traders are headed into a week likely to be marked by sharp swings and elevated uncertainty, as the West Asia conflict is expected to keep the undertone nervous. The market bias remains bearish despite oversold conditions, with Nifty and Sensex closing lower for a sixth consecutive week. The Reserve Bank of India’s response to the conflict in its first monetary policy review since the war began in late February will also be in focus and could influence near-term sentiment.

CHANDAN TAPARIA
HEAD - DERIVATIVES & TECHNICALS, MOTILAL OSWAL FINANCIAL SERVICES

Where is Nifty headed?
Nifty has been forming lower highs and lower lows on weekly chart, signalling a sustained downtrend. Despite this weak structure, the index staged a sharp 500-point intraday recovery on Thursday, forming a bullish candle on both daily and weekly charts. The index is now deeply oversold pointing to the possibility of a near-term pullback or relief rally. Holding above 22,100 is critical. A sustained move above 23,000–23,333 could trigger short covering, while failure to do so may keep the downtrend intact, with the index at risk of slipping below 21,750.

Trading Strategies : Recommended strategy for Nifty Option for 13 April expiry is a Bear Put Spread, ideal for a slight negative bias. Traders are advised to buy one lot of 22,700 strike Put Option and simultaneously sell one lot of 22,400 strike Put Option. Maximum risk in the strategy is 115 points (Rs 7,475), and a maximum potential Profit is 285 Points (Rs 18,525) per lot if the index expires below 22,400 zones towards next weekly expiry.

TOP STOCKS FOR THE WEEK

Adani Power: Buy. CMP Rs 160, Stop Loss: Rs 154, Target: Rs 172

Stock has broken out from a consolidation zone on daily chart after 100 trading sessions with a strong-bodied bullish candle. It has given the recent highest daily close with rising traded volumes along with holding above key moving averages.

Tech Mahindra: Buy. CMP Rs 1441, Stop Loss: Rs 1400, Target: Rs 1510

Stock started to form a higher top - higher bottom on weekly scale after the sharp corrective move in February. It has seen a consolidation breakout of the last 25 trading sessions and formed a Rounding Bottom pattern on daily chart.

HITESH TAILOR
TECHNICAL ANALYST, CHOICE EQUITY BROKING

Where is Nifty headed?
Nifty is likely to trade in a broad range of 22,150–23,500 with a sideways to bearish bias. While oversold indicators may trigger short-covering rallies, sustainability above 23,500 will be critical to shift sentiment. Until then, any pullback towards resistance zones is likely to face selling pressure. A decisive break below 22,150 could open the door for further downside towards 21,900-21,700 levels. Weekly RSI at 27.88 signals that market is in a deeply oversold zone, increasing the probability of a short-term relief rally or consolidation.

Trading Strategies: Nifty traders may consider a ‘sell on rise’ strategy in the 22,900-23,200 zone, with a stop loss at 23,500 and potential targets of 22,150-21,900. Fresh longs should be considered only if Nifty sustains above 23,500 on a closing basis.

Agencies

TOP STOCKS FOR THE WEEK
Adani Power: Buy at CMP Rs 159, Stop Loss at Rs 150, Target: Rs 177

Price structure has improved following a decisive breakout above a key horizontal resistance zone. The move is backed by a strong close and a clear uptick in volumes, signalling renewed buying interest and stronger participation.

Marico: Buy at CMP Rs 761, Stop Loss: Rs 724, Target: Rs 824

Marico’s structure remains positive, with a consistent formation of higher highs and higher lows pattern across timeframes. A pullback from its all-time high held near the 200-day EMA and saw a rebound, underscoring demand at lower levels and keeping the bullish undertone intact.

SACCHITANAND UTTEKAR
VP- RESEARCH (TECHNICAL & DERIVATIVES), TRADEBULLS SECURITIES

Where is Nifty headed?
The broader trend remains bearish unless a clear weekly reversal emerges. For the week, upside appears capped near 23,000, with 23,430 zone acting as a strong supply area, backed by the confluence of the 20-DEMA and prior gap resistance. On the downside, 22,000 is a crucial support; a decisive break could accelerate selling towards 21,630 (50-MEMA), exposing the index to deeper downside risk. The strategy remains ‘sell on rise’.

Trading Strategies: Traders should stay tactically flexible. In case a pullback unfolds driven by the 3-point Price–RSI divergence on the daily chart, a conditional ‘Buy’ above 23,000 should be deployed with a stop loss at 23,860 for a target of 23,430. However, since the broader bias remains cautious, a breakdown below 22,530 would signal continued weakness, potentially dragging the index towards sub-22,000 levels and reinforcing the prevailing downtrend to extend towards 21,630. In that case, sell below 22,530 with a stop loss at 22,610 for a target of 22,000.

TOP STOCKS FOR THE WEEK
Trent: Buy at Rs 3550, Stop Loss: Rs 3490, Target: Rs 3760.

Weekly ‘Bullish Engulfing’ pattern with RSI crossover signals a strong possibility of reversal. Also on its 30-minute chart, an ‘Inverse head and shoulders’ pattern breakout above Rs 3,550 confirms a bullish setup, with a projected move towards Rs 3,800.

Eicher Motors: Sell at Rs 6684, Stop Loss: Rs 6840, Target: Rs 6068.

Stock has broken its 12-month trend structure, closing below its prior month’s low for the first time, signalling a shift in long-term momentum. Last week’s sustained trade below its 200-DEMA (6780) and 50-WEMA (6630) confirms persistent supply pressure.