Dark Clouds Gather: IMD hints at monsoon's first BIG move by weekend - Here are the details

Conditions are becoming favourable for the onset of the southwest monsoon over parts of the south Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea and Andaman and Nicobar Islands towards the end of this week, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday, PTI reported.

"The low-pressure area over southwest Bay of Bengal lay over the same region at 8.30 am of today, the 12th May 2026, with the associated cyclonic circulation extending up to 4.5km above mean sea level. It is likely to become more marked during the next 48 hours," said the IMD in its daily forecast.

Typically, the monsoon hits the Andaman and Nicobar around May 20, and it subsequently advances further west toward mainland India. Kerala usually sees the onset of the monsoon on June 1, which marks the beginning of the southwest monsoon season (June to September).

Earlier, the IMD had said that India might witness below-normal rainfall this year during the monsoon season, according to PTI.

The country is likely to receive 80 cm of rainfall, while the long-period average (1971-2020) of seasonal rainfall over India is 87 cm. According to the IMD, it could be due to the emergence of the El Nino conditions, which cause less rainfall in the country.

In its monthly forecast on May 1, the department had said that El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions over the equatorial Pacific were evolving toward El Nino conditions, as per PTI.

M Ravichandran, secretary, ministry of earth sciences, said the system will initially offer weekly district-level forecasts on monsoon arrival up to four weeks in advance for monsoon-core zones across central, western, eastern and northern India.

"This will equip farmers well and it has been developed in response to increasing demand from agriculture and other sectors for highly localized and high-resolution weather forecasts," Ravichandran said.

At present, the IMD announces the onset date of the monsoon over the Kerala coast in early June and provides daily updates on the progress of monsoon rains.

The forecasting system has been developed by the IMD, the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, and the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting to deliver operationally useful forecasts for agricultural planning and preparedness, Ravichandran said. (With Agency Inputs)