House prices slide across Australia as Middle East conflict and tax changes begin to bite

House prices have fallen in Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth as the market downturn spreads across Australia.

New Cotality data, released on Monday, showed prices have fallen across most of the nation since May.

Brisbane’s median price has fallen about $8,000 since May, to equal its March level of $1.1m. The city’s dwelling prices had increased for an historic 40 consecutive months, since February 2023, until they fell in June.

Adelaide and Perth median home prices have each fallen about $4,000 below their record highs set in May, at $944,000 and $1.03m respectively.

In June, regional Australia’s home values fell overall for the first time since January 2023. Regional home values fell or stayed flat in every state in July.

Nationally, the median home price is now $928,000 – about $19,000 below its March peak.

Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra median prices have respectively fallen $69,000, $39,000 and $22,000 since February. Prices in Sydney and Melbourne are still higher than they were in January 2025 and in Canberra are above where they were in September 2025.

The Reserve Bank has reported fewer than 1% of borrowers have fallen into negative equity, with home values worth less than their loans, while an even smaller share are unable to make repayments.

The housing market has slowed since February, when the Reserve Bank of Australia began to hike interest rates and the US war on Iran broke out. Housing demand has fallen further since the May federal budget trimmed property investors’ tax concessions.

NAB on Thursday reported a 15% fall in home loan applications from the first three months of 2026 to the three months to June. Westpac, Equifax and Loan Market have independently reported falling mortgage demand.

The RBA governor, Michele Bullock, speaking at an Anika Foundation lunch on Wednesday, said she was surprised by the slump in house prices and housing demand since May.

Bullock said interest rates were only “a bit” restrictive, attributing the slump to falling buyer demand.

“I expect that things will settle down,” Bullock said. “People will get used to the new rules. Hopefully the conflict overseas will die down, and they’ll get a bit more confidence. Prices might lower a bit. People might feel more confident to come back into the market.”

Buyers and sellers are already showing signs of adjustment, with auction clearance rates edging up from from their June low of 47.4% to reach 53.6% at the weekend, according to Cotality’s preliminary data. The property research company reported the number of new listings had declined over July as sellers held off going to market to wait out weak conditions.

The RBA is not expected to raise interest rates when its board next meets on 11 August.