Nifty holds ground near 25,500 as bears and bulls battle to a draw on F&O expiry day

Markets closed virtually flat on Thursday, February 26, as monthly futures and options expiry-day jitters, persistent global uncertainty and weak banking and FMCG stocks kept bulls on the back foot — even as a last-hour recovery pulled the Nifty back from the day’s lows.

The Sensex ended at 82,248.61, down 27.46 points or 0.03 per cent, while the Nifty 50 settled at 25,496.55, gaining a marginal 14.05 points or 0.06 per cent. The session’s intraday range on the Nifty was a tight 172 points, underscoring the absence of any strong directional trigger.

Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, noted that the index “ended virtually unchanged, forming a small-bodied candle with a pronounced lower shadow, suggesting buying interest emerging near support zones.” He added that for the past ten consecutive sessions, Nifty has oscillated within a range of 25,885–25,327, with flattened moving averages and a horizontal RSI reinforcing the consolidation. “Any sustainable move above 25,660 will lead to a sharp upside rally up to the 25,800 level,” Shah said, pegging the immediate support at 25,380–25,350.

Ajit Mishra, SVP Research at Religare Broking, pointed out that “the Nifty’s ability to hold above the 25,400 level suggests that support remains intact,” but cautioned that “the risk of further correction could persist until the index decisively surpasses the immediate hurdle at 25,600.”

Among Nifty 50 constituents, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles (TMPV) led gains, rising 2.93 per cent to close at ₹393.05. Eicher Motors climbed 2.70 per cent to ₹8,224, while BEL added 2.28 per cent to ₹449.30. Shriram Finance gained 2.01 per cent to ₹1,107.70 and Max Healthcare rose 1.69 per cent to ₹1,106.45.

On the losing side, Trent declined 1.56 per cent to ₹3,861, Coal India slipped 1.50 per cent to ₹432, and Eternal fell 1.48 per cent to ₹246.50. Tata Consumer Products shed 1.31 per cent to ₹1,157, while HDFC Bank dropped 1.28 per cent to ₹896.

Sectorally, Nifty Healthcare, Nifty Pharma and Defence indices rallied over 1 per cent, with defensive buying driving outperformance. Nifty Media and Nifty FMCG were the weakest performers. Nifty Bank closed at 61,187.70, up 144.35 points or 0.24 per cent, while Nifty Financial Services edged down 0.11 per cent to 28,309.85.

The broader market told a more encouraging story. The Nifty Midcap 100 outperformed sharply, rising 0.66 per cent or 392.05 points to 59,798.15, forming a sizeable bullish candle. The Nifty Smallcap 100 ended nearly flat at 17,117.65. On BSE, advances stood at 2,080 against 2,124 declines. A total of 109 stocks hit 52-week highs, while 258 touched 52-week lows.

Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, flagged that “reports of the Reserve Bank of India’s temporary liquidity support measures winding down by March are raising questions around near-term funding conditions,” adding to the cautious undertone.

On the currency front, the Indian rupee strengthened against the US dollar, aided by foreign fund inflows and softer global commodity prices. However, early gains were pared as importers bought dollars and the greenback rebounded on geopolitical tensions. Dilip Parmar, Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, noted that “traders are now focused on the high-stakes US-Iran nuclear negotiations currently underway in Geneva,” with spot USDINR support at 86.70 and resistance at 87.08.

On the commodities front, MCX April gold futures hovered around ₹1.60–1.62 lakh per 10 grams, supported by safe-haven demand. MCX silver consolidated near ₹2.80–2.85 lakh per kg after recent gains, with the pause attributed to profit-booking rather than any structural reversal.

Looking ahead, Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, expects “markets to remain range-bound amid a mixed global backdrop, with stock-specific action driven by domestic demand themes and policy-linked opportunities.” He flagged India’s expected formalisation of $8.6 billion in defence agreements with Israel — including technology transfer of the Iron Dome and Iron Beam systems — as a potential market catalyst, along with a Canada-India leadership meeting focused on defence, energy and AI partnerships. For Bank Nifty, Shah sees a breakout above 61,500 on strong volumes as a potential trigger for a rally toward 62,000–62,500 in the near term.

Published on February 26, 2026