Nifty may rise over 200 points at open after India-US trade deal

Nifty trades near 25,935, supported by robust foreign inflows exceeding ₹8,100 crore in early February. RBI’s neutral stance on repo rates and steady inflation adds to macro stability.

Indian equity markets are set for a strong opening, driven by the India-US trade deal that has boosted market optimism.

Besides, positive global sentiment led by Japan’s Nikkei further strengthened bulls.

Tariff cuts impact

India has agreed to eliminate or reduce tariffs on all US industrial goods and a range of food and agricultural products, such as fresh and processed fruit, soybean oil and wines and spirits, per the US-India joint statement on a framework for an interim trade agreement issued on February 6. It continues to shield some sensitive farm and dairy items. The US will bring down its reciprocal tariffs to 18 per cent, benefiting a range of labour-intensive sectors, including textile and apparel, leather and footwear, plastic and rubber, organic chemicals, home décor, artisanal products, and certain machinery, per the joint statement.

Export sector gains

VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Ltd, said: “ The US-India trade deal is a big boost for India’s labour-intensive export sectors like textiles and apparel, gems and jewellery, leather and footwear and marine processed foods. “From the employment perspective, this is a big positive. It is important to note that India has a $41 billion trade surplus with the US. This may come down as we import more energy, defence, and aviation-related goods, as well as high-tech products, from the US. The exclusion of cereals, dairy, and poultry safeguards the interests of India’s farmers,” he said.

Gift Nifty is ruling at 25,935, while Nifty futures are near 25,735.

Investor confidence up

Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said the India–US trade pact has removed a key overhang, improved export visibility and triggered a revival in foreign investor interest. “The RBI’s decision to hold the repo rate at 5.25% with a neutral stance, alongside benign inflation expectations for FY26 (2.1%) and a steady growth outlook, continues to reinforce macroeconomic stability.”

Easing concerns over a potential US–Iran conflict, robust domestic institutional inflows, a stabilising rupee and sustained traction in Budget-led capex themes are adding to the positive momentum, he said, adding that overall sentiment has turned constructive, with markets now focusing on the durability of FII inflows and early signs of a recovery in export-oriented sectors. After three consecutive months of heavy selling, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) turned net buyers in the first week of February, infusing more than ₹8,100 crore into Indian equities, aided by improving risk sentiment and a trade deal with the US.S.

Asia sentiment lift

A resounding victory of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi lifted Nikkei around 5 per cent in early deals on Monday. The positive sentiment pervaded across Asia, with most equities up between 0.3 per cent and 4 per cent.

Published on February 9, 2026