Nifty to get support from rupee strength, FII inflows

The near-term outlook for Nifty has turned cautiously positive, supported by improving technical signals, a rebound in the rupee, and resumption of foreign investor buying. While resistance near the 26,000 mark remains crucial, a decisive breakout could pave the way for further upside, even as intermittent consolidation or volatility cannot be ruled out.

RUCHIT JAIN
VICE PRESIDENT, MOTILAL OSWAL FINANCIAL SERVICES

Where is Nifty headed?
The benchmark index has gone through a time-wise corrective phase over the past couple of months. During this entire consolidation, the 50-DEMA of 25,774 has acted as a support, and the index has not closed below it. However, the broader markets have witnessed a price-wise corrective phase during this period. The recent correction eased as FPI buying resumed and the rupee rebounded, which has improved nearterm market sentiment.

Trading Strategies: The outlook for the index remains bullish, with a support base around the 50- DEMA of 25,774. Traders can look to buy Nifty around the CMP of 25,966 (spot), with a stop loss below 25,700, for a potential upside towards the recent swing high of 26,325, followed by 26,500.

TOP STOCK BETS:

IDFC First Bank: CMP Rs 84.7. Buy with a stop loss at Rs 82 and a target of Rs 91.

The stock has seen relative outperformance recently, with price up-moves supported by strong volumes.

Bharat Forge: CMP Rs 1,440. Buy with a stop loss at Rs 1,381 and a target of Rs 1,550.
The stock has seen formation of a “higher top, higher bottom” formation and has given a breakout, indicating continuation of the uptrend.

Agencies

RUPAK DE
SENIOR TECHNICAL ANALYST, LKP SECURITIES

Where is Nifty headed?
Nifty has broken out of a falling wedge pattern, signalling a clear improvement in market sentiment. After several sessions of consolidation, the index has also reclaimed its 21-day EMA on daily chart, reflecting a return of near-term strength. Before this upward move, the Nifty tested the 50-day EMA of 25,774 on two occasions but failed to break below it, underscoring the robustness of this support zone. Overall, the technical setup appears constructive and supportive of a short-term rally. Going ahead, the 26,000 mark remains a crucial level to monitor. A decisive breakout above this zone could open the door for an upside move towards 26,300. On the downside, immediate support is placed at 25,900, which is expected to act as the first line of defence for the index.

Trading Strategy: A long position in Nifty can be considered with targets at 26,080 and 26,190, while maintaining a stop loss below 25,880 (spot).

TOP STOCK BETS:
JK Tyre: The stock has broken out of a month-long consolidation on the daily chart, indicating strong shortterm momentum. It appears well placed to move towards Rs 615, with a stop loss at Rs 470.

Schneider: The stock is showing signs of recovery after weeks of weakness. A bullish harami pattern on the daily chart, supported by a positive RSI divergence, suggests upside potential towards Rs 780, with a stop loss at Rs 688.

AJIT MISHRA
SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT – RESEARCH, RELIGARE BROKING

Where is Nifty headed?
Going ahead, the Nifty has reclaimed its short-term moving average, the 20-DEMA, around the 25,950 level. Sustained strength above this zone is essential for a move towards the 26,050–26,200 range, followed by a retest of record highs. On the downside, the previous swing low near 25,700 remains a key support. A breakdown below this level could broaden the consolidation, with the next major support placed around 25,450, coinciding with the 100-DEMA.

Trading Strategies
The strategy of “buy on dips” in both the Nifty and the auto pack through ETFs can be considered. For the Nifty, traders can consider accumulating NIFTYBEES (CMP: Rs 293.4) in Rs 290–295 range, with a closing-basis stop loss at Rs 284 and potential targets in the Rs 310–320 zone. In the auto sector, traders may look to accumulate AUTOBEES (CMP: Rs 283.7) in Rs 284–286 range, with a closing-basis stop loss at Rs 270 and upside potential towards the Rs 310–320 zone.

TOP STOCK BETS:
Bharat Forge: Buy (CMP: Rs 1,439), Stop Loss: Rs 1,360, Target: Rs 1,600

The stock has formed a medium-term base above the 200-DMA and reclaimed key short- and medium-term moving averages, indicating a return to a bullish bias. Momentum indicators remain supportive, suggesting the uptrend is likely to continue with dips attracting buying interest.

Titan: Buy (CMP: Rs 3,930), Stop Loss: Rs 3,740, Target: Rs 4,350

Titan remains in a long-term uptrend, though recent price action shows rising volatility through a broadening pattern. The stock continues to trade above key moving averages, indicating underlying strength, even as short-term pauses or pullbacks remain possible after the sharp rally.