Nifty to shed 150 points at open amid Iran tension

Domestic markets are likely to open marginally in the negative on Monday amid escalation of war in the Gulf region, involving Israel, the US and Iran. Gift Nifty at 25,205 indicates a gap-down opening of about 150 points for Nifty. Strong economic numbers such as GDP and GST collection will help in market recovery, market experts believe.

The rapid deterioration in West Asia stability has triggered a broad risk-off sentiment across global markets, prompting investors to shift towards safe-haven assets, said Hariprasad K, founder, Livelong Wealth. “Gold and silver prices have rallied sharply, while crude oil surged nearly 9 per cent in early Asian trade on concerns over potential supply disruptions — a development that presents a direct macroeconomic risk for oil-import-dependent economies such as India,” he said, adding that this heightened uncertainty is likely to keep risk appetite subdued throughout the session. Aviation stocks may remain under pressure following the suspension of flights across key UAE routes, highlighting the immediate operational fallout from the regional instability.

According to Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, the reported killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, along with senior military and intelligence officials, marks a dramatic escalation that materially alters the conflict calculus. “Leadership decapitation increases the probability of prolonged retaliation, internal instability and further military action. Markets typically struggle to price such regime-level shocks, and the uncertainty premium tends to linger,” he opined.

Meanwhile, any correction due to risk-off trading strategy on geopolitical tension will provide buying opportunity, said analysts. According to Emkay Global Research, renewed US-Iran military action is likely to trigger a correction in the Nifty. “We expect the hostilities to end in 1-2 weeks and the markets to recover sharply, as they did in Oct-23 and Jun-25. A sustained war, however, poses significant macro risks for India. We see OMCs/select infra players/airlines the most vulnerable in this period. The best places to hide in are upstream energy, metals, IT, and private banks,” the domestic brokerage said.

According to BofA Global Research, FY26 is maintained at 7.6 per cent, and FY27 is lifted to 7.4 per cent. “This increase essentially represents a lowering of risks to growth and resiliency to both private consumption and private investment. While commodity prices are inching higher, even at current levels, we see room for monetary policy to stay accommodative.”

Goods and services tax (GST) collections rose over 8 per cent in February, according to data released by the Finance Ministry on Sunday, which experts feel marks sustained consumption growth. The GST collections stood at over ₹1.83 lakh crore in February, led by higher growth in revenues from imports and improved domestic sales. Gross domestic revenue rose 5.3 per cent to about ₹1.36 lakh crore, while gross import revenue climbed 17.2 per cent to ₹47,837 crore.

Published on March 2, 2026