Oil tankers face 'worst case scenario' in Hormuz as Iran steps up attacks on ships, maritime risk CEO says

The security situation in the Strait of Hormuz has returned to a "worse-case scenario" for oil tankers as Iran has repeatedly attacked ships over the past week, the CEO of a maritime risk services firm said.

"We see the reduction of the volume of transits through the Strait of Hormuz and right now crews of vessels are even more concerned than they were before," said Dimitris Maniatis, CEO of Athens-headquartered Marisks, at a Lloyd's List Intelligence briefing this week.

"Nobody is willing to move," Maniatis said.

At least nine ships have come under attack since July 6 as Iran tries to force vessels to navigate Hormuz through its territorial waters rather than a route along Oman's coast protected by the U.S. military, according to data from the International Maritime Organization, a United Nations agency.

One seafarer was killed and three were injured in attack on the crude oil tanker Al Bahyah off Oman's coast on Tuesday, according to the IMO. Eleven mariners were injured the same day in an attack on the Mombasa B, also a crude oil tanker navigating close to Oman.

The Iranian attacks have used anti-ship missiles, said Jakob Larsen, chief security officer at BIMCO, one of the world's biggest shipping associations.

"All this resonates with crews and right now they're just not very happy to go through no matter what is promised to them," Maniatis said. "It's not about money anymore. It's not about any other higher calling. It's purely about the fear that is governing the decision making right now."

The U.S. military disabled an unladen oil tanker on Wednesday after reimposing its naval blockade against Iran this week, according to U.S. Central Command. The Curacao-flagged M/T Belma ignored multiple warnings as it transited international waters toward Iran's Kharg Island, Centcom said.

The traditional route through the middle of Hormuz, known as the traffic separation scheme, remains too dangerous for ships to use due to the threat of mines, Larsen said.

"If a mine detonates, typically that happens under the ship," he said. "The mine is a very powerful weapon, so it's extremely dangerous for ships to run into a minefield."

Hormuz traffic at a trickle

President Donald Trump said Tuesday that Hormuz was open to all ships except those of Iran after the reimposition of the U.S. naval blockade.

"It's open if people want to go through it," Trump told Fox News in an interview. "We're not opening it for Iran. That's the only one it's closed for. It's closed for Iran, both in and out, but it's open now."

But ship tracking firms have observed a steep drop in traffic. Hormuz has largely closed again with just a trickle of ships crossing with their transponders turned off, according to Lloyd's team of analysts monitoring the strait.

Traffic has fallen to a three week low, according data from to the trade intelligence firm Kpler. Ships transits fell to eight on Thursday down from 15 vessels the day prior, Kpler said. More than 100 ships transited Hormuz daily before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28.

The U.S. has launched six rounds of airstrikes against Iran in retaliation for the tanker attacks. Tehran has responded with volleys of missiles targeting U.S. allies in the Gulf. Iran and its Houthi allies in Yemen are now threatening to shut down ship traffic in the Red Sea, which has become a vital alternative route for Saudi oil exports during the war.

"Unfortunately, it looks like we are on a path of escalation and the situation might well grow worse with time," Larsen told CNBC.

Seafarers need reassurances

The escalation in fighting comes as the U.S. and Iran dispute how Hormuz is supposed to reopen under the memorandum of understanding they signed on June 17. Tehran promised safe passage to vessels in the strait, but the deal did not define which lanes vessels should use.

Shipping firms need reliable reassurances from Iran and the U.S. that Hormuz is safe, Larsen said. In the absence of an agreement, the alternative is the U.S. continues to conduct strikes on Iranian missile batteries, drone operators and gunboats, he said. Traffic could increase again if shippers believe the U.S. has successfully degraded the threat from Tehran, the analyst said.

Shipping companies have different risk appetites, with some willing to transit Hormuz while others are staying completely away from the strait, Larsen said.

But the decision to transit Hormuz is not just up to "the ship owner sitting behind his desk," the analyst said.

"It also requires that the crew actually agree," he said.