Pakistan, Afghanistan threaten war in region eyed by superpowers

An army soldier stands guard at a deserted entry point at the Friendship Gate, following the exchanges of fire between Pakistan and Afghanistan forces, at the border crossing between the two countries, in Chaman, Pakistan February 27, 2026. | Photo Credit: ABDUL KHALIQ ACHAKZAI

Pakistan and Afghanistan edged closer to all-out war this week, escalating tensions in a region where the world’s economic superpowers are vying for influence. 

Pakistan said it bombed targets in the Afghan capital Kabul to punish the Taliban government that it blames for backing deadly attacks by militants inside Pakistan. Later Friday, the Afghan state news channel reported new Taliban strikes on several border posts. Clashes by both sides were ongoing Friday night, according to local media reports.

The violence risks further destabilising a part of Asia where the US, China and India all have important interests – and which also faces fallout in the event of an American attack on neighbouring Iran. Both Pakistan and Afghanistan are threatening to extend the exchange, though they also have reasons to dial it back.

President Donald Trump has said he wants to restore American control over Bagram airbase in Afghanistan — vacated when the US army pulled out in 2021 after two decades of occupation — mainly to keep tabs on China. He’s heaped praise on Pakistan’s military chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, adding to strains in US-India ties. 

Meanwhile Beijing, one of Pakistan’s oldest friends and biggest financial backers, has been stepping up engagement with the Taliban. 

All of this forms a backdrop to this week’s resurgence in fighting, which Pakistan’s defense minister called “open war.”

The two countries have given sharply varying estimates of casualties in the latest clashes, which followed months of attacks inside Pakistan – most notably by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, or TTP. The Afghan Taliban denies backing the militant group, which largely targeted far-flung tribal areas but recently claimed a suicide bombing in the capital Islamabad.

‘Too weak’

“These retaliations are getting worse bit by bit,” said Pramit Pal Chaudhuri, head of South Asia at consulting firm Eurasia Group. Still, he sees limits to the escalation because “both countries are too weak to be doing much more than they’re doing now.”

The Taliban is still constrained by its diplomatic isolation, while Pakistan – whose bond markets took a hit Friday on the renewed fighting — urgently needs foreign investment. Previous rounds of clashes have been followed by rapid de-escalations.  

At a news conference Friday, Pakistan military spokesman Lt General Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry said the “operation is continuing” in Afghanistan, and 12 of its soldiers have died, he said. Information Minister Attaullah Tarar later said Pakistan has killed 297 Taliban militants and regime personnel.

Afghan authorities said their forces have killed 55 Pakistani soldiers while losing 11 of their own. The Taliban wants to resolve the conflict through talks but has the capability to strike Pakistan anytime, spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said.

If Pakistan pursues the campaign, one quarter where it could find support is Washington. Pakistan wants to complete its operations against militants in Afghanistan quickly and show the US it’s committed to fighting terrorism, according to a person familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the matter.

Trump has hosted Munir at the White House several times, and he’s pledged to develop Pakistan’s mineral and oil wealth. The US president, who says his interventions have ended multiple wars, was asked Friday if anyone had reached out for help mediating this one.

“Well, I would, but I get along with Pakistan as you know, very well,” Trump said, describing Munir as “a great general, a great leader.”

Other countries have stepped forward with mediation offers.

China has been working on mediation via “its own channels,” a foreign ministry spokeswoman said Friday. Beijing has invested billions of dollars in an economic corridor with Pakistan, and traditionally backed its ally’s anti-terror campaigns. But China has also been cultivating the Taliban since its return to power in 2021, receiving diplomats appointed by the Islamist movement and meeting other Afghan officials. 

Iran’s foreign minister said the country is “ready to provide any assistance in facilitating dialogue.” Qatar, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, which all have friendly ties with Pakistan, have sought to broker ceasefires and promote talks.

Trump’s overtures to Munir have irked India, Pakistan’s longstanding rival. The two nuclear powers traded air and missile strikes last year, their worst clashes in decades, and blame each other for supporting militant groups. India has stepped up a search for trade routes that bypass Pakistan. 

TTP threat

Inside Pakistan, the threat posed by the TTP has been steadily growing. The group took responsibility for a suicide bombing near a courthouse in Islamabad in November that killed at least 12 people. But the brunt of its attacks have been borne by Pakistanis in the border areas.

One resident of Lakki Marwat, a town in that region, described how some 60 TTP gunmen arrived demanding food and threatening to shoot residents who didn’t cook for them.

Border crossings between the countries have been shut for months, and trade has come to a standstill. Pakistan’s exports have plunged, while supply disruptions have pushed up food prices.

Neither side really wants a full-blown conflict, and “this suggests a willingness to agree to internationally mediated talks that would work toward a ceasefire,” said Michael Kugelman, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington. “But in the absence of a Taliban commitment to curb the TTP, it would just be a matter of time until the ceasefire is broken and violence resumes.” 

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Published on February 28, 2026