Good morning. In Gorton and Denton, on the outskirts of Manchester, people have started voting in one of the most eagerly awaited, and fiercely contested, byelections of recent years. All the polling suggests the result will be very close. The political scientists argue that, if a party wins a contest like this by just a few hundred votes (or perhaps ever fewer – Reform UK won the Runcorn and Helsby byelection last year by just six votes), it is irrational to draw broad conclusions about the state of UK politics over a result that could easily have gone the other way had it not been for a few random incidents (like activists not closing the door in a cafe). But politics isn’t rational; a win will firm up a narrative that will shape the way the main parties do politics in the months ahead. (And, whoever wins, the result will confirm that we now have multi-party politics trying to operate in an electoral system constructed for two-party politics, which is quite different.)
Here is Josh Halliday’s preview.
The polling stations opened at 7am. Unusually, the leaders of the three parties that might win have all issued personal messages to the voters. Keir Starmer, the PM and Labour leader, and Zack Polanski, the Green leader, are both claiming they are best placed to beat Reform UK.
Starmer said:
The choice at today’s by-election could not be more stark. Unity or division. Driving down the cost of living with Labour or driving a wedge between communities under Reform. Moving forwards together, or opening up anger and division that holds our country back.
Reform’s Matthew Goodwin thinks people who aren’t white can’t be English and wants women who choose not to have children to pay more tax. Vote Labour in Gorton and Denton today to send him and his toxic politics packing.
Only Labour’s Angeliki Stogia can unite communities in Manchester and Tameside and stop Reform. A vote for the Greens or any other party just risks letting Goodwin in through the back door.
And Polanksi says:
Labour know they're in third place. Yet in the last 48 hours have gone as far as obsessively attacking the Green Party and even creating a fake tactical voting website to spread misinformation.
If you can't vote today - then join us instead!https://t.co/0qbagSvIYp
And, in his statement, Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader, said:
Our message on election day is clear.
The prime minister is panicking and knows he has broken his promises to the British people.
Vote Reform to ditch Starmer.
Here is the agenda for the day.
9.30am: Lisa Nandy, the culture secretary, takes questions in the Commons.
9.30am: The Home Office publishes its latest asylum and resettlement figures.
9.30am: The Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government publishes homelessness figures.
Morning: Keir Starmer is on an education-related visit in the north of England.
11am: Your Party announces the results of the elections to its leadership team, its central executive committee. As Alexandra Topping reports, there has been a bitter contest between the Jeremy Corbyn faction and the Zara Sultana faction.
11.30am: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.
Noon: John Swinney, Scotland’s first minister, takes questions from MSPs.
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