Stock Market on Monday, March 2: Five triggers to watch amid Israel-US-Iran war - Middle East crisis, crude oil surge and more | Analysts view

Stock Market on Monday, March 2: Stock markets will react negatively on Monday due to the escalating crisis in the Middle East, and the impact on equities will depend on how long the conflict lasts, analysts said. The US and Israel attacked Iran on Saturday. Iranian state media confirmed early Sunday that Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the attack.

In all, broadly there are five key triggers for markets for Monday. The details have been provided below.

Equity markets would remain closed on Tuesday for Holi.

Sentiment has turned even more fragile after fresh geopolitical escalations over the weekend in the Middle East, Santosh Meena, Head of Research at Swastika Investmart Ltd, told PTI.

"For an oil-importing economy like India, sustained elevated crude prices pose risks to inflation, fiscal balance, and rate-cut expectations. This external shock has emerged at a technically vulnerable moment for the market," Meena said.

Looking ahead to Monday's trade, markets are likely to open with a cautious to negative bias amid geopolitical overhang and elevated crude prices, he noted.

"Investors will simultaneously react to Q3 GDP data and monthly auto sales figures, while upcoming IIP and PMI numbers will further shape domestic macro expectations.

"Globally, key economic releases from the US and China, along with the trajectory of crude prices, will influence risk appetite. The direction of FII flows will remain the primary driver for index movement in the near term," Meena added.

Crude Oil Surge and Inflation Fear

Brent Crude, the global oil benchmark, jumped 2.87 per cent to USD 72.87 per barrel.

"The simmering tensions between the United States, Israel, and Iran escalated sharply on February 28, 2026, significantly affecting global energy security and economic stability.

"For India, which relies heavily on imported crude oil, the immediate consequence has been rising inflationary pressure triggered by higher energy prices," Manoranjan Sharma, Chief Economist at Infomerics Ratings, said on the US-Iran-Isreal conflict.

He further said that benchmark indices are expected to open lower, accompanied by heightened volatility as investors reassess geopolitical and commodity-related risks.

"The near-term impact will be negative. Crude has spiked, and if the crude price remains high for an extended period of time, our balance of trade and balance of payments will be impacted since we import around 85 per cent of our oil requirements," VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited, said.

Over the medium term, the impact on the market will depend on how long the conflict lasts, Vijayakumar said.

"The market will react very negatively," he added.

Equity markets ended the last week under notable pressure as persistent geopolitical tensions and weakness in technology stocks weighed on sentiment, Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd, said.

"Sensex is trading in a short-term bearish structure on the intraday chart, with price sustaining below the 50 EMA and forming lower highs–lower lows. RSI is near the oversold zone around 30, which may trigger a temporary bounce but does not confirm a reversal yet. The immediate resistance stands at 81,550 (previous breakdown level). On the downside, 80,810 is the key immediate support, and a break below this can extend the fall toward 80,400–80,200. For Monday, bias remains bearish with high volatility; unless 81,550 is decisively reclaimed, sellers are likely to stay in control," the market expert said.

Last week, the BSE benchmark tanked 1,527.52 points or 1.84 per cent, and the Nifty declined 392.6 points or 1.53 per cent.

"Domestically, investors will look to manufacturing and services PMI readings, industrial production data and monthly auto sales for evidence of demand resilience," Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, an online trading and wealth tech firm, said.