T20 World Cup 2026: What is the exact victory margin Pakistan need over Sri Lanka to qualify for the semifinal?

In a high-stakes Super 8 encounter on Saturday, Pakistan would aim to scamper past Sri Lanka to manufacture an opportunity to qualify for the semifinal. The situation propelled after Group 2 leaders, England, did a huge favour to Salam Ali Agha and Co. on Friday by beating New Zealand by 7 wickets. Subsequently, Pakistan now have a task at hand. They need a victory over Sri Lanka at any cost, but at the same time, they need to meet some other stipulations as well.

Pakistan need to beat Sri Lanka by a big margin

With three wins in three games, England have topped the Group 2 points table and have stormed into the semifinal. New Zealand are currently placed second at three points, and based on what will transpire in Sri Lanka vs Pakistan match tonight, their semifinal fate will be mapped. Currently, the Kiwis are in an ideal spot to progress as they have a largely superior Net Run Rate of 1.390 in comparison to the Pakistan team, which is at -0.461. What this means is that Pakistan's victory over Sri Lanka will not solely help their cause. To overtake New Zealand on NRR, Pakistan are required to beat Sri Lanka by a certain margin if batting first, and within limited overs if batting second.

According to the ICC: "To overtake New Zealand on Net Run Rate, they'll need to beat Dasun Shanaka's side by more than 65 runs, or chase down a target inside 13 overs, though the figures won't be exactly known until after the first innings of the match."

The T20 World Cup 2026 has not turned out to be an ideal tournament for Pakistan thus far. While they have managed to beat the minnows, they have failed miserably against competitive teams like India and England. Despite that, there is a qualification window open for them.

However, to attain the miraculous semi-berth, they need to get the better of Lanka in every department. Since batting has severely let them down in the competition, Pakistan may make a few tweaks in the batting order ahead of the must-win game against Sri Lanka.

Before the match, a massive development has emerged: Salman Ali Agha is set to be removed as captain of the Pakistan team regardless of the outcome of their campaign in the ongoing T20 World Cup, while some other senior players might have also played their last tournament for the national side.

According to a reliable source in the Pakistan Cricket Board, chairman Mohsin Naqvi is "unhappy" at the way the team's campaign has turned out in the mega event.

"Naqvi is not happy at all because this time he was assured by the selectors, team management and his close aides on the board that the team was set to do well in the World Cup," the source said on Saturday.