US midterm primary season kicks off in shadow of Iran war

The 2026 primary season, in which voters in the United States determine which candidates will represent the major Republican and Democratic political parties in the November midterm elections, has begun in earnest with votes in Texas, North Carolina and Arkansas.

The polls kicked off just four days after the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran, sparking a regional war that has seen Iran launch retaliatory strikes across the Middle East. The fighting has so far left hundreds dead, including at least 787 in Iran, six members of the US military, and several civilians across the Gulf.

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At the same time, the war has touched on several issues expected to dominate the US midterm season, with Democrats hammering concerns over US affordability and Republicans seeking to square US President Donald Trump’s “America First” vows with the latest military adventurism.

The outcome of Tuesday’s election will give an early temperature of the US electorate ahead of the midterm vote, which will determine whether Republicans maintain their slim control over both the US Senate and the House of Representatives.

One of the biggest tests will be in Texas, where Democrats have long hoped to win a statewide office, something they have not done since 1994.

Some watching politics have suggested a match-up between Democratic hopeful James Talarico, who has pitched himself as a Christian liberal and centrist seeking to speak directly to Trump’s voters, and Republican challenger Ken Paxton, who has hewed closely to Trump, could give Democrats the best shot at turning a seat in the US Senate.

Talarico, a seminary school student, has walked a careful line on Iran’s war, posting following Saturday’s strikes: “No More Forever Wars”, a reference to Trump’s own campaign pledge.

In a subsequent speech, Talarico referenced the US military members killed since the war began, but otherwise avoided wading deeply into the politically charged subject.

His primary election opponent in the Senate race, Democrat congresswoman Jasmine Crockett, has taken a more confrontational approach, in line with a fiery, forthright style she has said the party needs in the age of Trump.

“The question is, how many more lives will have to be lost before people will heed the warnings?” she said in a video response to the strikes, pointing to the high population of US veterans in the state.

“This president has engaged in lawlessness since the day that he took office, and unfortunately, it is us – us Americans – that are going to suffer.”

Paxton, the current attorney general in Texas, has defended Trump’s attacks – but with an apparent eye towards growing unrest from Trump’s “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) movement. In the final stretch of the race, he assured reporters that Trump was seeking a swift end to the fighting.

“He wants to get this over with,” he said.

Incumbent Senator John Cornyn has also said he was satisfied with Trump’s justifications for the strike, with the president portraying Iran’s ballistic and nuclear capabilities as an imminent threat to the US, claims for which he has provided little evidence.

“It takes a lot of political courage, because these things are easier to start than they are to end,” Cornyn said in an interview with Face the Nation published on Monday.

A test of party direction 

To be sure, the war has overlain, rather than transformed, many of the issues already dominating the race, including the cost of living, immigration, artificial intelligence, housing, healthcare and civil rights under the Trump administration.

In North Carolina, progressive candidate Nida Allam was quick to connect the war to support received by her opponent, incumbent Representative Valerie Foushee, from defence contractors and artificial intelligence super PACs, as well as her past support from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC).

The issue dovetails with Allam’s opposition to an AI data centre in her district, in a race that has become the most expensive in the state’s history.

In an advertisement released on Monday, Allam focused on the bombing of a girls’ school in Minab, Iran, that left at least 165 dead, calling herself a “proudly un-compromised, pro-peace leader”.

Foushee, meanwhile, has co-sponsored legislation to rein in Trump’s ability to strike Iran, accusing the president of “violating the Constitution and risking another open-ended war with no clear objectives and no exit strategy”.

Both parties will also select their candidates to run for the open Senate seat left by retiring Republican Thom Tillis. Democrats will be hoping for an upset in November in the so-called “purple” state. having a roughly equal makeup of Democrats and Republicans.

Former Governor Roy Cooper, who has warned of “another costly, drawn-out war that puts our troops in harm’s way and removes focus and resources from needs here at home”, is considered the frontrunner in the crowded Democratic primary race, which includes five other candidates.

On the Republican side, former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley, who has been endorsed by Trump and has vowed to remain the president’s “ally in the Senate”, is expected to take victory in a six-way Republican race.

A wave of Democratic voter turnout on Tuesday would be a sign of strength heading into the November polls.

Opposing parties typically perform well in US midterm elections, and polls have shown dismay over Trump’s immigration policies, his stewardship of the US economy, and his military actions in Venezuela and, most recently, Iran.

Republicans have sought to seize on Trump’s claims of policy success during a first term that has stretched presidential norms and transformed the government.

Also closely watched will be the US Senate race in Texas between 78-year-old Representative Al Green, who was kicked out of Trump’s State of the Union address earlier this month after holding up a sign accusing the president of racism, and 37-year-old Representative Christian Menefee.

Both incumbents have been forced to face off for the Democratic ticket following the latest round of congressional redistricting in the state.

Another indication of the potency of Trump’s continued hold over the party could be the Texas race between Republican Representative Dan Crenshaw and challenger, state lawmaker Steve Toth.

Crenshaw has been a vocal supporter of many of Trump’s policies, including his decision to launch a war with Iran, but has been critical of several figures in the president’s orbit.

He is the only Republican House of Representatives incumbent running in Texas who has not been endorsed by Trump.