World Cup Commerce Will Play Out In An Era Of Protectionism

FIFA World Cup Merchandise (Photo by Wang HE/Getty Images)

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UNITY. CERTAINTY. OPPORTUNITY. These were the three opening words and the central theme of the 530 page united bid made by the US, Canada, and Mexico to host the 2026 World Cup. The case was made based on a foundation of legacy relationships, established infrastructure and stability, and open markets offering the largest consumer economy in the world. However, the world and relationships under which that bid was crafted are fundamentally different from those we find ourselves in today. Those words were selected eight years ago, prior to escalating trade wars, COVID-19, FIFA scandals, and global tensions.

With the event spread across 104 matches with 48 participating teams, this will be the largest World Cup in history. This represents a landmark commercial opportunity, yet it is colliding with a historically defensive trade environment. Brands and retailers remain hopeful of the potential, but there is much uncertainty around whether anyone will come out as a winner.

Playing Defense: A More Protectionist Economy

The joint bid between the US, Canada, and Mexico was officially announced on April 10, 2017, approximately three months after Donald Trump was sworn in for his first term. By the time the official bid was submitted on March 16, 2018, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) was already under renegotiation. In June 2018, FIFA voted in favor of the bid, confirming the 2026 World Cup events across North America. Although no one anticipated the future strain on global relationships that would fully emerge, there was already some foreshadowing.

NAFTA was replaced by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which was signed into law January 29, 2020. With the agreement in place, the United States still initiated trade wars with both partners. Canada has publicly objected to these moves by assigning reciprocal tariffs and with Canadian citizens reacting accordingly with drops in tourism and calls for boycotting of American goods. During his speech at the World Economic Forum's annual meeting in Davos, Canada’s new Prime Minister, Mark Carney communicated Canada’s intent to build strategic autonomy. Since the meeting, Canada has been highly active in trade deals. It has enhanced its Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) with the EU, an investment pact with the United Arab Emirates, confirmed a new agreement with Indonesia, and began negotiations with several other Asian and South American countries.

Although the Mexican government’s response was more measured, issues are beginning to show. Mexico’s President, Claudia Sheinbaum, recently spoke out against US interference with governmental policy and affairs. The USMCA agreement includes a mandatory joint review clause in July of 2026. Both Mexico and Canada have submitted requests to extend the trilateral agreement, while President Trump has called the agreement “irrelevant”. The second round of review is scheduled for June 16-17, so whether unity between the nations will continue may be decided prior to the final on July 19.

Missing The Goal: Visitor Projections

Aside from tension with its upstairs and downstairs neighbors, current visa policies may be a further deterrent to international visitors, fueling growing anti-America sentiments. The original bid included a chapter on human rights which positioned all three countries as leaders in inclusion and fan access. That chapter now reflects a different political climate.

Foreign traveler arrivals in the US declined 5.4-5.5% in 2025. Although that was largely driven by Canada, steep declines were seen from other countries. Airline bookings from Europe and Asia are also down, but with the US dollar down 12% against the euro, cost is not the deterrent.

FIFA’s former president, Sepp Blatter, backed a call for boycotting travel to the event. Comments were made largely on the basis of safety. European governments have updated travel advisories in response to areas of unrest in the US. Germany and Ireland are two examples that made updates following escalation of ICE protests.

FIFA’s original estimates projected attendance that would exceed 100 Super Bowls, but it may turn out to be a fraction of that according to data from Tourism Economics. That could make it a FIFA faux fumble (yes, I know there is no fumbling in soccer, but I couldn’t resist the pun). In February, FIFA president Gianni Infantino claimed every match was sold out, later corrected by the organization that he meant they expect every match to sell out. Tickets however remain available, including on the resale markets.

The Brand Playbook

As of March 2026, FIFA announced that all global sponsorship positions were officially sold out. The sponsorship sellout signals high expectations. Those expectations were based on the original promise of scale, leading many brands to sign up early for sponsorship. Top-tier partners include Adidas, Coca-Cola, Hyundai-Kia, Visa, Aramco, Lenovo, and Qatar Airways. Other brands and retailers are also participating through second tier sponsorships, as official supporters and suppliers, as well as through direct sponsorships with teams. Fanatics secured the position of official e-commerce and collectibles partner, signing a multi-year deal.

Despite the optimism, the current average US effective tariff rate sits at 10.5%. At the original time of the bid, the effective tariff rate on goods was 1.66%. Not only does this mean merchandise will be more expensive, but with the conflict in Iran, the trip to get here is hit first. Airfare has surged due to rising fuel costs tied to the US-Iran conflict, and the Strait of Hormuz disruption.

Even with hotel bookings tracking below forecasts, rates remain high with one report showing an average increase of more than 300%. These costs are further compounded by the already high cost of event tickets. Using dynamic pricing, FIFA increased ticket prices an average of $200 on more than 90 of the 104 matches between October 2025 and April 2026. These rising costs could be a yellow card for brands, calling into question whether there will be any discretionary income left once fans reach the stadiums.

Soccer’s Future Draft Potential For Retail

Despite the concerns and warning signs presented by hotel reports, the World Trade Organization (WTO) and FIFA’s joint report estimates the tournament will generate $30.5 billion in output and $17.2 billion in GDP for the US. With the full tournament spread out across 39-days, with the US hosting 78 of the 104 matches, there is more potential for momentum to grow.

Retail and fashion have always had a close relationship, but soccer presents a largely untapped arena for brands. The World Cup was last held in the US 32 years ago. Since that time, soccer has still struggled to take major hold in culture, despite decades of investment. This tournament represents the most significant opportunity to change that. The lasting effects of this could have significant meaning if the events are able to accelerate soccer’s cultural penetration in North America in ways that outlast the 39 day run. If the 104 matches across 16 cities can’t accelerate this, it is hard to imagine what could.