Advantage NDA: How Gains In States Give BJP The Edge For 2027 Presidential Polls

Last Updated:May 11, 2026, 14:49 IST

With wins in West Bengal and Assam and gains in Kerala, the BJP-led NDA appears to be in a comfortable position for the 2027 Presidential election.

The Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA won two out of four states that witnessed Assembly elections this April. The NDA’s sweeping gains in the 2026 Assembly elections may have altered not just the political map of several states, but also the arithmetic for the next Presidential election in 2027.

With the NDA making major advances in West Bengal, retaining Assam, improving its footprint in Kerala and Tamil Nadu, and strengthening its position in Puducherry, the alliance now appears far more comfortably placed in the electoral college that elects India’s President.

Assembly election, therefore, changes the balance of power in Rashtrapati Bhavan’s future race.

For the BJP, the focus has now also shifted to two crucial states that vote just months before the Presidential election – Uttar Pradesh and Punjab. Those two elections could ultimately decide whether the NDA merely stays ahead or enters the Presidential race with overwhelming dominance.

The significance of these victories goes beyond state governments. In India, the President is elected by an electoral college comprising elected MPs and MLAs. Every

How Is The President of India Elected?

India’s President is elected by:

• Elected MPs of Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha
• Elected MLAs of all states and Union Territories with legislatures

As of the current structure, the total vote value of the electoral college is roughly 10.9 lakh. To win comfortably, a candidate generally needs around 5.45 lakh vote value. That is the halfway mark required for victory.

But not every vote has equal value. The value of an MLA’s vote depends on the population of the state based on the 1971 Census. That is why states like Uttar Pradesh carry enormous weight, while smaller states contribute less.

Similarly, MPs’ vote values are calculated collectively to maintain parity between Parliament and state legislatures. This means large state victories can dramatically shift the Presidential poll equation.

Why 2026 Assembly Election Results Matter

The NDA’s biggest breakthrough came in West Bengal, where the BJP crossed the 200-seat mark in the 294-member Assembly and formed the government there for the first time. That alone significantly boosts the alliance’s vote share in the Presidential electoral college because Bengal has one of the highest MLA vote values in the country.

In Assam, the BJP retained power for a third straight term under Himanta Biswa Sarma, further preserving NDA numbers.

In Puducherry too, the NDA improved its standing.

Even in states where the BJP did not form government, such as Kerala and Tamil Nadu, the party and its allies improved their legislative presence compared to earlier cycles. That matters because every MLA counts in Presidential polls.

How BJP’s Bengal Win Changes The Game

West Bengal is among the most electorally valuable states in Presidential elections because each MLA carries a vote value of 151. With the BJP winning over 200 seats there, the NDA’s tally in the electoral college rises sharply.

Political observers say this is one of the biggest reasons the NDA now looks significantly more secure for 2027 than it did after the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, when the BJP had lost its solo majority in Parliament.

Why Uttar Pradesh Remains Crucial

Despite the NDA’s gains, Uttar Pradesh remains the single biggest factor in any Presidential election. The state’s 403 MLAs together account for over 83,000 vote value in the electoral college, by far the largest in the country.

The next UP Assembly election is expected in February-March 2027, just months before the Presidential election in July 2027.

If the BJP-led NDA retains its dominance in UP under Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, the alliance would enter the Presidential election with a massive structural advantage. Even a modest improvement in seat share there could sharply widen the gap between the NDA and the Opposition bloc.

This is why, despite its gains elsewhere, the BJP still sees UP as the centrepiece of its national strategy.

Could Punjab Add To NDA’s Tally?

Alongside UP, Punjab is also expected to go to polls in early 2027. Historically, Punjab has not been a BJP stronghold. But the political landscape there has changed dramatically over the past two years.

The weakening of the Aam Aadmi Party government, internal factionalism, and recent defections have opened space for the BJP to expand in the state far beyond its traditional urban pockets. Even limited gains in Punjab could matter numerically in the Presidential electoral college because every additional MLA contributes to the tally.

More importantly, the BJP has already benefited politically in Parliament from developments linked to Punjab politics.

Seven Rajya Sabha MPs associated with the AAP switched to the BJP, substantially strengthening the NDA’s position in the Upper House.

The BJP’s improved strength in Rajya Sabha, combined with expanding control over state Assemblies, has steadily improved its electoral college numbers even after the setbacks it faced in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

Can The Opposition Stop NDA?

Mathematically, the Opposition still can stop NDA. But politically, it is going to be a challenge.

For the Opposition to seriously challenge the NDA in the Presidential election, it would require near-total unity among INDIA bloc parties, strong performances in UP and Punjab, and consensus on a single candidate. Any fragmentation could heavily benefit the NDA.

The challenge for Opposition parties is that several regional players continue to maintain issue-based equations with the BJP even while opposing it electorally. That creates uncertainty in a Presidential election, where cross-voting has historically played a major role.

The 2027 Presidential election will become the first major national power test after the political churn of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and the dramatic state contests of 2026 and 2027.

If the BJP retains UP, expands in Punjab, and continues consolidating gains in eastern and southern India, the NDA could enter the Presidential contest with one of its strongest electoral college positions in years.

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