Diwali 2025: How will be Samvat 2082 for Indian stock market? 5 themes to watch out

Diwali 2025: How will be Samvat 2082 for Indian stock Market? (Pic: ET NOW)

Samvat 2082 , Indian Stock Market Prediction: Leading brokerage firm Axis Securities has said that Samvat 2082 is poised to be an eventful and closely watched year for the Indian economy. Despite prevailing external headwinds, India’s domestic growth momentum remains resilient.

It said that key macroeconomic indicators point toward a stronger performance in FY26 compared to FY25. It added that the early projections suggest an even more robust outlook for FY27.

Both the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the government are providing support to the Indian economy by front-loading pro-growth fiscal and monetary measures. These include -- 50 bps CRR cut in December 2024; 100 bps rate cut till now; improved bank liquidity; heavy RBI dividend to government; consumption boost provided in the budget and uptick in the government CAPEX spending. On top of this, it said, the government has implemented GST 2.0 reforms.

"These developments collectively indicate that India's economy is at an inflexion point and will gain benefits going forward," Axis Securities said.

Considering the positive attributes of the Indian economy, Axis Securities has presented the following themes for Samvat 2082:

- Private banks as a play on the uptick in the credit growth cycle.

- Discretionary consumption plays via Hotels, Auto Ancillary, and Retail stationary.

- Play in the value chain of the Power sector with capacity expansion and investment in the transmission sector.

- Export recovery play in Indian Midcap IT companies.

- Asset-light Hub and spoke play in the Hospital sector.

Samvat 2081: Indian Stock Market Performance

Axis Securities said that Samvat 2081 was a challenging year for the Indian stock market. The Indian markets underperformed global and emerging markets for the first time since the Covid-19 era.

In the last one-year, markets witnessed a roller coaster ride marked by extreme volatility in the first half of the Samvat.

The Nifty 50 corrected by 16 per cent till February 28, 2025 from the peak (touched in September 26, 2024). Over this same time, the broader market corrected a bit deeper while the Mid and Smallcap indices saw a correction of 21 per cent and 25 per cent, respectively.

The majority of correction in the market was driven by: US trade policy uncertainty; rise in US bond yields and dollar index; slowdown in domestic earnings growth; lower than-expected CAPEX spending; slower-than-expected consumption pattern and slowdown in the credit growth.

In the second half of Samvat, however, markets enjoyed a bounce back from the February 2025 bottom. A breather rally was seen across the sectors and market caps. Since the February 2025 low, the benchmark index Nifty 50 has gone up by 14 per cent till October 9, 2025. The Mid and Smallcap stocks rebounded with a rally of 22 per cent and 23 per cent during the period, respectively.

Even with the bounce back, the brokerage said, Indian market has given a flattish return since last Diwali (November 1, 2024). During this period, the Nifty 50 and Midcap Index have gone up by only 3.6 per cent and 3.4 per cent, while the Smallcap Index is still down by 5.2 per cent.

On the other hand, the Emerging Market Index went up by 19.8 per cent while the S&P 500 climbed 18 per cent over this timeframe.

(Disclaimer: The above article is meant for informational purposes only, and should not be considered as any investment advice. ET NOW DIGITAL suggests its readers/audience to consult their financial advisors before making any money related decisions.)