Indiana Pacers Lottery Odds Near Coin Flip Chance To Keep First-Round Pick

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - JUNE 25: An overall view of the draft board following the first round of the 2025 NBA Draft at Barclays Center on June 25, 2025 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)

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CHICAGO – The Indiana Pacers will learn the direction of their offseason and the fate of their bold trade deadline move on Sunday. The NBA Draft lottery will be held in Chicago that afternoon, and the Pacers have a lot at stake.

In February, Indiana sent their first-round draft pick to the Los Angeles Clippers in a trade that netted them center Ivica Zubac and forward Kobe Brown. The Pacers wanted Zubac and have had their eyes on him for a while. He nearly made an All-NBA team in 2024-25. But acquiring a player of that caliber requires a significant price.

The Pacers sent Bennedict Mathurin, Isaiah Jackson, a 2029 unprotected first-round pick, and a second-round selection to the Clippers. Those are all guaranteed parts of the trade package. They also sent a conditional 2026 first-round selection that makes Sunday such a big deal for the blue and gold.

That pick is protected so that it would only go to LA if it lands between five and nine. 10-30 would have gone to the Pacers, as would one through four. The 10-30 part is no longer important, though. The Pacers finished the season with the league’s second-worst record, meaning their first-round draft pick can only fall as low as sixth overall.

That’s why the Draft Lottery is so important for the Pacers. The first four selections in the NBA Draft are determined by the lottery drawing, which means the Pacers will need fate to smile upon them to keep their draft pick. If the lottery, which is done by a random drawing of ping pong balls, favors other teams, the Pacers will lose their pick to the Clippers.

“The pick protection, it was very unique, obviously,” Pacers general manager Chad Buchanan said of the trade. “We were trying to protect our upside at the top of the draft mostly.”

What are the odds the Pacers keep their 2026 first-round draft pick?

Since 2019, the NBA has been operating under its current odds for the NBA Draft lottery – though they are expected to change next season. Today’s format was meant to de-incentivize racking up losses for the sake of a better draft pick, though it hasn’t had the intended effect.

That means the Pacers, who finished the season with the NBA’s second-worst record, aren’t guaranteed to land in the top four after the lottery. In fact, they barely have better than coin flip odds.

Tankathon lays out the odds well in this table, but to summarize, the Pacers have a 52.1% chance of keeping their draft pick and a 47.9% chance of it going to the Clippers. Technically the Pacers are favored to end up with the pick, but not by much.

“That’s a business decision. I can’t predict what happens in the lottery. Whatever happens, happens,” Pacers forward Aaron Nesmith said of the projected 2026 pick being included in the trade back in February.

The individual pick slots break down for the Pacers as follows.

First overall: 14.0%

Second overall: 13.4%

Third overall: 12.7%

Fourth overall: 12.0%

Fifth overall: 27.8%

Sixth overall: 20.1%

The most likely individual outcomes are fifth and sixth, but the cumulative odds of one through four are greater. Should the pick land fifth or sixth, the Pacers won’t even see their logo revealed at the draft lottery. The NBA will hold up a card that says Clippers, the pick will be sent to LA, and that will be that.

Guard T.J. McConnell will be the on-stage lottery representative for the Pacers. He will be the one shown on TV when their fate is announced. The Pacers have a plan for the offseason with or without the pick and have identified roster needs already. But they’ll still be hoping for lottery luck today, especially given how talented the top four players in this draft are perceived to be.