Polymarket defends its decision to allow betting on war as ‘invaluable’

3 hours ago 20

Everything is gambling now, even human suffering.

by Terrence O'Brien

Feb 28, 2026, 8:46 PM UTC

Screenshot 2026-02-28 at 3.31.33 PM

Terrence O'Brien

is the Verge’s weekend editor. He has over 18 years of experience, including 10 years as managing editor at Engadget.

Polymarket has been allowing people to bet on when the US would strike Iran next. Obviously, now that it’s actually happened and people have died, the prediction betting market is feeling some pressure. The site has been at the center of controversy before, including suspicions of insider trading on the Super Bowl halftime show and the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

In a statement posted on its site, Polymarket defended its decision to allow betting on the potential start of a war, saying that it was an “invaluable” source of news and answers, before taking shots at traditional media and Elon Musk’s X. The statement reads:

Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

We’ve reached out to Polymarket for clarification about its policies regarding betting on violence, suffering, war, and death.

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