This Week: How Low Can Gucci Go?

Welcome back to The Week Ahead, your guide to the coming week’s most important and interesting events. This week I’ll dive into expectations for Kering’s fourth-quarter earnings and what to expect at New York Fashion Week. There’s plenty else going on that I won’t get to in detail, including the Super Bowl on Sunday (read about fashion’s stepped up presence here and here), and Hermès results on Feb. 12.

Kering’s Holding Pattern

Customers and investors have only received glimpses of Gucci's new direction under Demna. (Courtesy of Gucci)

Kering reports fourth-quarter sales and second-half profits on Feb. 10. Analysts are predicting another decline in both.

Expectations are understandably low as Demna’s first full Gucci collection won’t hit the runway until Feb. 27, and stores much later than that. Kering’s biggest brand will likely see another worrying slide in sales.

Double-digit declines at Gucci are no longer shocking, but the size of the drop this time around still matters, in that it will determine how deep a hole the brand will need to climb out of once Demna’s revamp gets going in earnest. Most forecasts project Gucci’s 2025 revenue to settle at around €6 billion ($7.1 billion), down from a peak of over €10 billion in 2022. The macro environment isn’t helping: last month, LVMH chief executive Bernard Arnault predicted 2026 would be another difficult year for luxury.

Kering leadership can offer additional guidance on the turnaround this week — closing stores, reducing inventory, right-sizing pricing and the like — though the full plan likely won’t be laid out until the company’s investor day in April.

Whatever is going on behind the scenes, Gucci’s future in large part hinges on how customers perceive Demna’s creative vision. So far, they haven’t been given much to go on. While his launch film and capsule collection were much talked about, a campaign earlier this year that relied on similar themes felt like a retread to some. Meanwhile, competitors are barreling ahead with their own creative revamps: Matthieu Blazy has now shown three full collections for Chanel, and Jonathan Anderson’s Dior is available to buy in stores.

Kering chief executive Luca de Meo has also talked about reducing the conglomerate’s “overdependency” on Gucci, and this week’s earnings will be scrutinised on that criteria as well. The outlook for Kering’s other brands is mixed, at best: Balenciaga has yet to catch fire under Pierpaolo Piccioli’s creative direction, and McQueen is early into a radical makeover. Saint Laurent, Kering’s second-biggest brand by sales, is a steady earner, but unlikely to supply new momentum. That leaves Bottega Veneta, which is having a moment with Louise Trotter, though she is still early in her tenure and the brand is currently without a CEO.

Ultimately Kering’s fortunes depend on its biggest brand, and the message this week is likely to be that turning around Gucci is a marathon, not a sprint.

Ready for Fashion Month?

Marc Jacobs Spring/Summer 2025. (Marc Jacobs)

The Autumn/Winter 2026 womenswear shows kick off with Marc Jacobs on Monday evening, followed by Ralph Lauren on Tuesday and then the official schedule rolling out on Feb. 11. As is often the case in February, the schedule is light on surprises; big brands and designers tend to use September for one-off New York runway shows and other major activations.

There is a major debut in Rachel Scott’s first collection for Proenza Schouler on Wednesday, following on her well-received “prelude” in September. Veronica Leoni will show her third collection for Calvin Klein; while still one of the bigger draws of the week, it remains to be seen how her more elevated, minimalist designs fit into the bigger picture at a brand that makes so much of its money from underwear and denim.

We’ll have plenty more to say about these shows and others in the coming days.