Will Airtel deliver another strong quarter? Analysts see stable ARPU, healthy subscriber additions in Q4

Telecom Bharti Airtel is expected to post another steady March quarter, with analysts pencilling in healthy subscriber additions, resilient broadband growth and stable profitability, even as the quarter had two fewer operating days sequentially.

Brokerages expect Airtel’s operational momentum to remain intact across India wireless, home broadband and Africa operations, with the key focus on subscriber additions, average revenue per user (ARPU) trajectory and margin expansion.

Street estimates suggest Airtel’s consolidated revenue could grow around 1.5–1.6% quarter-on-quarter, while EBITDA is seen rising 1.5% QoQ, supported by a better subscriber mix, continued 2G-to-4G upgrades and growth in non-mobile businesses.

According to JM Financial, Airtel is likely to add around 50 lakh mobile broadband subscribers in Q4 FY26, compared with 52 lakh in Q3, while overall wireless subscriber additions are expected at around 40 lakh.

The brokerage expects Airtel’s India wireless ARPU to remain flat at Rs 259, unchanged sequentially, as the impact of two fewer days in the quarter is likely to be offset by continued premiumisation and subscriber upgrades.

JM Financial estimates India wireless revenue at around Rs 29,000 crore, implying 1.1% sequential growth, while India wireless EBITDA is seen rising 1.5% QoQ to around Rs 17,600 crore.

The brokerage also expects Airtel’s home broadband segment to remain a strong growth driver, with around 14 lakh net subscriber additions during the quarter, while enterprise EBITDA is seen growing 1.9% sequentially. Centrum expects Airtel’s India wireless subscriber base to increase by around 65 lakh QoQ, with ARPU likely to rise about 1% sequentially, driven by continued migration from 2G to 4G and rising postpaid penetration.

The brokerage expects EBITDA margin to improve by 8 basis points sequentially to 57.1%.

Meanwhile, Motilal Oswal expects consolidated revenue growth of around 1.6% QoQ, led by robust performance in homes broadband and Africa operations.

The brokerage expects India wireless revenue growth of about 0.8% sequentially, with wireless ARPU at Rs 258, marginally lower on a sequential basis due to the shorter quarter.

Motilal also expects Airtel to report 40 lakh net paying subscriber additions and 60 lakh 4G/5G subscriber additions during the quarter.

The brokerage expects consolidated EBITDA to rise 1.5% quarter-on-quarter, supported by healthy execution across homes, passive infrastructure and international operations.

For investors, management commentary on another potential tariff hike, ARPU roadmap toward Rs 300, 5G monetisation, capex intensity and rural subscriber upgrades will remain key monitorables.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)