Labour must search its conscience if Reform wins Gorton and Denton, says Green leader

The polls have opened in the three-way battle for Gorton and Denton in south-east Manchester in one of the most unpredictable byelections in years.

The Green party leader Zack Polanski said his party was “neck and neck” with Reform UK to overturn Labour’s 13,000-vote majority, and that Labour will need to “search their conscience” if Reform UK wins.Keir Starmer’s party has targeted left-leaning voters in the Greater Manchester seat with claims that only Labour can see off Nigel Farage’s Reform, saying that a vote for the Greens was “in effect, a vote for Reform”.

Labour’s strategy of claiming the Greens cannot win has echoes of the disastrous Caerphilly byelection in October, which the party lost to Plaid Cymru despite telling voters repeatedly: “Only Labour can beat Reform.”

Speaking ahead of polls opening at 7am on Thursday, Polanski accused Labour of deliberately splitting the left vote because a Green victory would be “existential” for Starmer.

“It’s looking neck and neck between the Green party and Reform,” he said. “I don’t think Labour are in this race at all – they’ve known that for a long time.”

Polanski, who chose not to stand in the constituency despite growing up in Manchester, said the party’s internal data suggested it was fractionally behind Reform, with Labour “way, way behind”.

“The Labour party know that the Green party are on track to win this election and I think that they’re doing everything they can to try and split the vote,” he said.

“My biggest fear is a scenario where Reform win by a handful of votes because Labour took a small percentage of the vote but it was just enough to stop the Green party from winning.”

A split vote on the left allowed Reform to win the Runcorn and Helsby byelection last May by six votes.

Labour is defending a 13,413-vote majority in Gorton and Denton where nearly 80% of voters backed a party on the left at the 2024 election. The result will be declared at about 4am on Friday.

Angeliki Stogia, a Labour councillor, was selected as the candidate for Starmer’s party after Andy Burnham was prevented from standing. The academic turned GB News presenter Matt Goodwin – who has faced criticism for his comments on women, Muslims and British citizenship – is standing for Reform UK. Hannah Spencer, a Trafford councillor and plumber by trade, is the Green party candidate.

Prof Will Jennings, of the University of Southampton, said the contest was too close to call and that in Britain’s new fragmented politics “anything can happen”. He said a Labour defeat would be “terminal” for No 10’s strategy to try to appeal to right-leaning voters in a way that alienates its core progressive supporters.

“It would be a symbol of the failure of that strategy and the end point for it,” said Jennings. “The worst-case scenario for Labour is coming third behind Reform and the Greens, not least because of the decision to stop Andy Burnham from standing.”

A Labour victory would “staunch that sense of inevitability of the end of Starmer”, he added, and potentially mark a turning point for a government eight points behind Reform in the polls and facing a resurgent Green party.

However, any relief for Starmer would be short-lived as Labour is expected to suffer heavy losses when voters across England, Scotland and Wales go to the polls in the local and devolved elections in 10 weeks.

On a visit to the constituency on Monday, Starmer described the Greens’ plan to legalise drugs as “disgusting” and claimed it would turn parks and playgrounds into “crack dens”.

Polanski said Starmer’s visit “felt very much like spoiler behaviour” because it suggested Labour was confident of winning when, he claimed, that was not the case. “I think the Labour party will have to search their conscience if they’ve allowed the Reform party to win.”

Polanski accused Labour of sinking to “a new low” with an attack advert on social media showing a green syringe alongside the words: “Heroin, crack cocaine, spice. Green party says YES.”

“It’s the last desperate gasp of a Keir Starmer Labour government,” the Green party leader said.

The byelection was triggered by the resignation of Andrew Gwynne on health grounds in January. The former MP was under investigation by parliament for offensive messages he sent in a WhatsApp group of local Labour figures.