Sensex Prediction for tomorrow: Experts suggest selective stock-picking on Thursday amid market consolidation - Key technical levels for May 21

Sensex Prediction for Thursday, May 21 by experts: Following a volatile session on Wednesday, the domestic equity indices staged a smart recovery from early losses, with the BSE Sensex ending 117.54 points higher, helped by a rally in Reliance Industries, even as investors remained cautious due to higher crude prices and a weaker rupee.

Market experts believe Thursday’s session may continue to witness volatile yet range-bound movement unless the benchmark indices decisively break above key resistance levels.

Sensex at close on Wednesday, May 20

The 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 117.54 points, or 0.16 per cent, to settle at 75,318.39. The index opened lower and fell by 671.44 points, or 0.89 per cent, to a day's low of 74,529.41.

However, buying in oil & gas, financial and auto shares in the last hour helped the index trim losses and rebound around 877 points from the day's low.

The 50-share NSE Nifty edged higher by 41 points, or 0.17 per cent, to end at 23,659.

Sensex gainers and losers on Wednesday, May 20

From the 30-Sensex firms, Reliance Industries rallied 2.83 per cent. Bajaj Finserv, Trent, InterGlobe Aviation, Axis Bank and Mahindra & Mahindra were also among the winners.

Hitesh Tailor, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking Private Limited, said, “On 20th May 2026, the BSE Sensex closed at 75,318.39, gaining 117.54 points (+0.16%), amid a volatile yet range-bound trading session. The index opened gap down by around 395 points at 74,806.49 and slipped further to mark the intraday low at 74,529.41 during the early trade. However, buying interest emerged from lower levels, leading to a gradual recovery throughout the session. The Sensex later touched an intraday high of 75,406.18 and eventually settled near the day’s high at 75,318.39, indicating selective buying support at lower levels. Despite the recovery, the index continues to trade within a broader sideways range for the sixth consecutive trading session, reflecting cautious market sentiment and lack of strong directional momentum.”

Sensex Prediction for Thursday, May 21 by experts

Market analysts suggest that while Wednesday’s late recovery is encouraging, it is too early to call it a definitive structural shift. The experts further stated that Thursday's trading session is highly anticipated to be a playground for nimble stock-pickers rather than aggressive index traders.

Sensex Prediction for Thursday, May 21 by Hitesh Tailor

According to Tailor, Sensex is technically still witnessing range-bound movement with support placed around the 74,100–74,400 zone, while immediate resistance is positioned near the 76,000–76,200 zone.

“The current structure indicates consolidation after recent sharp swings, and traders are likely waiting for a decisive breakout on either side for directional clarity,” he stated.

Sector-wise, Capital Goods, Power, Energy, Oil & Gas, Hospitals, and Auto indices witnessed buying interest and outperformed the broader market. Industrials, Realty, Telecommunication, PSU Banks, and Metal sectors also ended in positive territory, indicating selective stock-specific strength. On the other hand, FMCG, Focused IT, IT, and Consumer Durables remained under pressure, while Financial Services and Banking indices traded with limited movement during the session, the analyst added.

He further stated the market continues to witness a consolidation phase with volatile intraday swings, indicating indecisiveness among participants near current levels.

“Although buying support is emerging from lower zones, the index is still struggling to generate strong follow-through momentum on the upside. The overall setup suggests a wait-and-watch approach in the near term, where sustained movement beyond the broader range of 74,100–76,200 is likely to decide the next directional trend. Until then, traders may continue to witness stock-specific action along with intermittent profit booking at higher levels,” Tailor concluded.

SEBI-registered analyst Vipin Dixena said the Sensex is showing signs of stabilisation after defending the 74,300 support zone. “The index is gradually moving higher toward the 75,800 resistance band. Price has reclaimed the 50 EMA on a short-term basis, indicating improving momentum after the recent correction. RSI is also trending upward from neutral levels, reflecting strengthening buying interest and easing bearish pressure,” Dixena said.

However, he cautioned that the broader market still remains inside a consolidation range between 74,300 and 75,800, and a decisive breakout above resistance is needed for stronger bullish confirmation.

“Failure to sustain above the 50 EMA may again lead to range-bound volatility and profit booking,” he concluded.

Broader markets performance on Wednesday

Broader markets today advanced as the BSE MidCap Select index jumped 1.02 per cent and the SmallCap Select index rose by 0.16 per cent. Among sectoral indices, Power surged the most by 1.78 per cent, followed by Oil & Gas (1.37 per cent), Capital Goods (1.52 per cent), Energy (1.45 per cent), Industrials (0.91 per cent) and Auto (0.82 per cent).

FMCG declined 0.63 per cent, Focused IT (0.27 per cent), IT (0.24 per cent) and Consumer Durables (0.15 per cent). A total of 2,120 stocks advanced, while 1,981 declined and 209 remained unchanged on the BSE.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, traded 2 per cent lower at USD 109 per barrel.

The rupee weakened to a fresh record low against the US dollar, inching closer to the 97 mark, while persistent foreign institutional outflows further weighed on market sentiment. The rupee hit a record low of 96.95 to a US dollar before settling at 96.84 to a dollar, down by 14 paise.

US President Donald Trump on Tuesday said he was an hour away from making a decision to restart attacks on Iran, but put it off after receiving a call from interlocutors, including Qatar and the UAE, on Tehran being "reasonable" in the peace talks.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth Rs 2,457.49 crore on Tuesday, according to exchange data.

On Tuesday, the Sensex declined 114.19 points, or 0.15 per cent, to settle at 75,200.85. The Nifty dipped 31.95 points, or 0.14 per cent, to end at 23,618.

(Disclaimer: The above article is meant for informational purposes only, and should not be considered as any investment advice. ET NOW DIGITAL suggests its readers/audience to consult their financial advisors before making any money related decisions.)