Sensex Prediction Tomorrow: Gap down opening likely on Monday amid Israel-US–Iran tensions – Key support, resistance levels to watch on March 2

Sensex Prediction for Monday amid Israel-US and Iran conflict: The escalating tensions in the Middle East following the attack by Israel and the United States against Iran are expected to weigh on Indian markets in the near term, primarily driven by a rise in energy prices.

Analysts believe that oil marketing companies, aviation, paints, autos, consumer discretionary and logistics could face pressure due to the tension in the Middle East.

The analysts further noted, as reported by IANS, that the immediate market reaction is likely to be negative as investors assess whether the flare‑up will become a prolonged conflict or remain a short‑term one, adding that a rise in geopolitical tensions generally creates selling pressure in the markets.

On Friday, benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty tumbled over 1 per cent due to fresh foreign fund outflows and subdued global trends amid the rising geopolitical risks. Also, the lack of progress in US–Iran nuclear talks has intensified concerns of further escalation of Middle East tensions, experts said.

Sensex, Nifty at close on Friday (February 27)

The 30-share BSE Sensex tanked 961.42 points or 1.17 per cent to settle at 81,287.19. During the day, it dropped 1,089.46 points or 1.32 per cent to 81,159.15.

The 50-share NSE Nifty tumbled 317.90 points or 1.25 per cent to end at 25,178.65.

From the Sensex pack, Sun Pharma, Bharti Airtel, Bajaj Finserv, InterGlobe Aviation, Mahindra & Mahindra and Maruti were among the major laggards. HCL Tech, Trent, Infosys and Eternal were the gainers.

“On 27th February 2026, the BSE Sensex closed sharply lower at 81,287.19, declining 961.42 points (−1.17%), as heavy selling pressure persisted for the second consecutive session. The index remained under sustained stress throughout the day and touched an intraday low of 81,159.15, reflecting continued risk-off sentiment and broad-based liquidation across sectors. Weakness in Auto, financials, FMCG, and metal stocks weighed heavily on the benchmark, underscoring cautious investor positioning and reduced risk appetite,” said Hitesh Tailor, Technical Research Analyst.

Stock Market Prediction for Monday (March 2) amid Israel-US and Iran conflict

As the market opens for the first day of March on Monday (March 2), SEBI-registered analyst Vipin Dixena stated that the Indian markets are likely to open weak (gap down) on Monday due to risk-off sentiment and a possible spike in crude oil prices due to the war tension between Israel-US and Iran.

He further stated, “Higher oil can pressure inflation, the rupee, and sectors like auto and aviation. Volatility may rise with FII selling, adding to weakness.”

Sensex Prediction for Monday by Vipin Dixena: Technical levels to watch on March 2

Sensex is trading in a short-term bearish structure on the intraday chart, with price sustaining below the 50 EMA and forming lower highs–lower lows, Dixena said.

He noted, “RSI is near the oversold zone around 30, which may trigger a temporary bounce but does not confirm a reversal yet.”

He further pointed out that the immediate resistance stands at 81,550 (previous breakdown level). On the downside, 80,810 is the key immediate support, and a break below this can extend the fall toward 80,400–80,200.

For Monday’s trading session, Dixena said bias remains bearish with high volatility. “Unless 81,550 is decisively reclaimed, sellers are likely to stay in control,” he concluded.

Sensex Prediction for Monday by Hitesh Tailor: Technical Outlook for March 2

On the technical front, the index slipped below its recent consolidation range and key support zones, testing lower demand areas and signalling continued short-term weakness, Tailor said.

“The 81,000–81,100 band now emerges as a crucial demand zone where dip-buying interest may surface if selling pressure begins to stabilise. Meanwhile, the earlier support at 81,900–82,000 has been breached and has now turned into an immediate resistance zone, where any rebound attempt is likely to encounter supply pressure and profit booking,” he added.

For the market bias on Monday, the analyst said, “With a decisive breakdown and the index closing near its lower levels, the near-term structure remains cautious to bearish.”

He further stated that a sustained recovery above the 81,900–82,000 zone would be required to indicate potential stabilisation, while a decisive breach below 81,000 could pave the way for extended downside momentum and further weakness.

Meanwhile, crude has firmed amid concerns about possible disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, trading around $67–$68 a barrel, rising around 2 per cent.

Analysts warned that a sustained move above $80 a barrel would add significant macroeconomic strain for India, a major oil importer, and could fuel inflation, squeezing corporate margins.

However, analysts said that energy and defence stocks typically could find support in the near term. Gold, silver and US Treasurys could attract safe‑haven flows, they forecasted.

Questions over succession are in the air following the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, with his second eldest son, Mojtaba Khamenei, emerging as a possible frontrunner, according to multiple reports.

With markets closed on Holi day, the weekly Nifty expiry shifts to Monday, compressing the trading window. Such calendar adjustments often amplify short-term positioning moves, potentially keeping volatility elevated, said market watchers.

(With inputs from agencies)