Oil climbs as traders weigh slew of risks from Hormuz to Red Sea

Brent oil extended its recent rally as traders weighed threats to maritime traffic that span from the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea to a key Kazakh export terminal on Russia’s coast.

The global benchmark rose roughly 2% to trade around $91 a barrel as the US conducted a 10th straight day of strikes on Iran after President Donald Trump vowed Tehran “will pay” for killing American soldiers. In a sign of continued Iranian attempts to strike tankers crossing Hormuz, another ship carrying oil products was hit.

Meanwhile, Yemen’s Houthi militants threatened to blockade Saudi Arabia’s maritime traffic in the Red Sea, adding another level of risk to supplies from the top OPEC producer. The group emailed shipowners advising them not to call at ports in Saudi Arabia, while at least three tankers had already U-turned in the Southern Red Sea.

Away from the Middle East, there have also been disruptions after a spate of attacks at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal on Russia’s Black Sea coast, which ships most of Kazakhstan’s oil. The Central Asian nation has at times shipped close to 1.8 million barrels a day of crude, making it a significant global exporter.

Gasoline and diesel futures were little changed, while still trading near their highest levels since late May. The lengthy run-up in prices in the last month likely spells further hikes at the pump and signals continued tightness in the market for refined products, with stockpiles abnormally low for mid-summer in the US.

Oil has repeatedly swung on the prospects for escalation and détente in the conflict, making for increasingly choppy price moves. The Houthi threat could open up a new front in the conflict, sending prices higher just weeks after oil markets looked to have averted the worst-case impacts of the Iran war. 

Saudi exports from Yanbu hit record levels in the days and weeks before the Houthis threatened to block the kingdom’s shipments, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. The Saudi Foreign Ministry said it would take all necessary measures to protect its ships in accordance with international law.

Brent could exceed $120 a barrel by the fourth quarter if Hormuz disruptions persist, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., although that’s not the bank’s base case. At present, Goldman sees $80 in the final three months of the year, with the Houthi threat adding upside risks to the forecast.

Visible traffic through Hormuz came to a near standstill on Monday following Iranian attacks on vessels over the weekend. An oil supertanker called the Acheloos and a smaller fuel tanker were both struck in the waterway, according to Dynacom Tankers Management Ltd., the ships’ manager.

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Published on July 21, 2026